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Paul Ryan Upends Republican Hopes and Plans for Midterm Elections

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House Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s decision not to seek re-election is a stark sign that the political chaos and divisions of the Trump era are disrupting the Republican Party in lasting ways. Representative Kevin McCarthy, right, is seen as a possible successor as the leader of House Republicans. Credit Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
WASHINGTON — Fifteen months after Republicans took full control of Washington, the man long seen as central to the party’s future is abandoning one of the most powerful jobs in the capital, imperiling the G.O.P. grip on the House and signaling that the political convulsions of the Trump era are taking a grave toll on the right months before Election Day.

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s retirement announcement on Wednesday blindsided many House Republican candidates and their campaign leaders who were counting on him to lead them to victory in the November midterm elections. His decision to leave Congress at 48 sent an undeniably pessimistic message to Republicans: that stable, steady leadership is lacking in their deeply divided party as they head into a campaign season defined by the whims of President Trump.

And for a White House bracing for a potential Democratic impeachment inquiry, the ominous impact of Mr. Ryan’s retirement was unmistakable. He has made it more difficult to stave off Democrats’ taking control of the House, where Republicans currently hold a 23-seat majority.

As many as 50 House Republican seats are at risk in competitive races this year. Private polling indicates that Mr. Trump’s approval rating is well below 40 percent in some of those tossup districts, the sort of low political standing that often dooms candidates of the president’s party.

“This is the nightmare scenario,” said former Representative Thomas M. Davis III, a Virginia Republican. “Everybody figured he’d just hang in there till after the election.”

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